President Donald Trump's tariffs of 25 percent against Canada and Mexico have been postponed for a month, but if they are introduced, it could affect the flow of Swedish forest industry products to the United States, believes Christian Nielsen, market analyst at the Swedish Forest Industries Federation.

"Contrary to what Donald Trump says, it is unreasonable to believe that the United States can succeed in becoming self-sufficient in sawlogs. Their need for imports of wood products from Canada is currently about 25 percent of their consumption. The cost of imports from Canadian production will probably be normative, and those who will most clearly be affected by increased tariffs will thus be the American consumers who will have to pay more. For European producers, the tariffs against Canada increase our competitiveness, but even for later tariffs directly against the EU, the effects are more unclear, if any," he says to the Swedish Forest Industries Federation's website.

When it comes to paper and pulp, however, he believes that the United States could have become self-sufficient and reduced exports to other countries.

Only five to ten percent of the total exports from the Swedish forest industry are sold to the American market.

Overall, however, the forest country Sweden is dependent on its exports. The Swedish forest industry's export value amounted to approximately SEK 185 billion in 2023 and accounts for about nine percent of Sweden's total goods transport. As much as 92 percent of Sweden's production of paper and board is exported, according to the Swedish Forest Industries Federation.

Should a trade conflict flare up and escalate, the global flows of forest industry products may have to find new trade routes. No one benefits from a trade conflict, says Christian Nielsen.